Will 2020’s First Payrolls Report Help The Dollar?

Daily FX Market Roundup 01.09.20

By Kathy Lien, Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management

It has been a good week so far for the and on the eve of the first of the year, the greenback extended its gains against all of the major currencies. The rally was fueled by the record-breaking moves in U.S. stocks and encouraging words from Federal Reserve Presidents. Bullard for example sees a soft landing this year, Evans described the economy as being in a good place, Barkin is encouraged by the jobs report and pace of holiday spending while Kaplan sees 2-2.5% GDP growth in 2020 with possibly even stronger growth if the headwinds ease. The initial panic following Iran’s retaliation to the killing of a key military general fades slowly as both sides step back from a full-blown war, but sudden escalation is always a risk, particularly after Iranian commanders threaten more attacks.

While geopolitics remain front and center for a few hours on Friday, it will take a backseat to data. Labor-market numbers are due for release from the and . Based on the performance of the , it appears that investors are bracing for a good report. However job growth in November was much stronger than expected (266K vs. 180K forecast) with an that dropped to 3.5% from 3.6%. This month, job growth is expected to have slowed to 160K leaving the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.5%. Given the 100K deviance predicted for December compared to November, the headline number will be just as important as the revisions and this month. Back in November, wage growth was revised sharply lower and in December, it is expected to recover.The arguments for stronger vs. weaker non-payrolls are evenly balanced although the decline in the employment component of non-manufacturing and manufacturing ISM combined with last month’s outsized increased favors a softer release.

Arguments In Favor Of stronger Payrolls

  1. rises to 202K from 124K
  2. remains unchanged
  3. Higher University of Michigan
  4. Drop in

Arguments In Favor of Weaker Payrolls

  1. Minor decline in
  2. Decline in the
  3. Rise in
  4. Drop in Conference Board

The Scenarios

  • If NFPs rise by 160K or more & wages rise 0.3% (with no meaningful downward revisions), could hit 110.
  • If NFPs rise by 160K or more & wages rise by less than 0.3% (with no meaningful revisions), should stay below 110.
  • If NFPs rise by less than 160K & wages rise 0.3% (with no meaningful revisions), should stay below 110.
  • If NFPs rise by less than 160K & wages rise less than 0.3% (with no meaningful revisions), will break 109.
  • Canadian are also on the calendar. Investors have been selling since this week’s disappointing report but according to IVEY, labor-market conditions improved at the end of the year. This is consistent with the recovery that is expected after last month’s abysmal decline. If you recall, job growth was expected to increase by 10K in November but instead it dropped a whopping -71K. So not only are upward revisions expected to this release but a rebound is anticipated as well. Economists are looking for the economy to add 25K jobs and for the to fall to 5.8% from 5.9%. If U.S. data disappoints and Canadian data beats or vice versa, we could see big moves in USD/CAD.

    Finally, while the was the best-performing currency Thursday, the worst was the . There was no specific data to justify the decline but commodity prices and trucking activity fell in December according to ANZ. resisted some losses thanks to stronger German but the shrugged off better . will also be in focus tomorrow with , the and monthly numbers scheduled for release.

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